Like most things Indian, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) victory hides more than it reveals. It is not a moment of ecstasy or agony. It is a far more durable fact – like a toothache that forces us to endure and slog for better times.
67-3 is enema for the winner and the loser. It is the best and the worst result Delhi could deliver.
The best because
1. It rejects sloth. The Congress, the Left and the BSP did nothing to justify their national party status. They had no energy. They didn’t care. They simply repeated discredited nominees and hoped that old cronies and control over the police would deliver. All of them put together didn’t deserve a seat. A few more zeroes elsewhere are now possible.
2. It busts hubris. Amit Shah and Narendra Modi seemed tired and lordly. An unending series of state elections after General Election 2014 has sapped them of sharpness. Adding to the mix was the Delhi BJP, more of a cozy club which resisted Kiran Bedi although the plan to get her on board was 15 months old. If anything, the BJP behaved just like the Congress for which it was spanked.
3. It humiliates big money. Big funding means big favours. The Congress, the BJP, and the BSP are usually comfortable with big donors. They think fat wallets have more to lose and will therefore work to win. They don’t. Real estate players see it as cost of business. They offer money for friendly laws; they never fight it out on the streets. This time, Delhi turned its back.
4. It curbs votes for liquor. Alcohol has for long subverted Indian democracy. In far too many neighbourhoods, nothing matters but the bottle of liquor each male voter gets a night or two before voting day. The Aam Aadmi Party is the only outfit in Delhi that fights inappropriate use of alcohol. The huge AAP win in Badarpur, an alcohol-fuelled constituency, is a sign that this works.
5. It endorses smart thinking. The AAP repeated its 2013 and 2014 formula. They had people from all over India, and outside India, campaigning and working for them. This created an illusion that its support base had grown. Over several weeks this became popular wisdom. The other parties stuck to Delhi units while the AAP drew worldwide. It delivered.
6. It makes things interesting. Arvind Kejriwal has some better peers than, say, Lalu Prasad or Nitish Kumar. His Delhi 2015 win offers a template for non-BJP politics, which is good for psephology, the media, the pollsters, the corporates, and the voters. A BJP win would have been boring. The new kid on the block might force old warhorses to learn new tricks.
The worst because
1. It is thoughtless. How on earth did Kejriwal make it with nothing more than an apology? The 2014 AAP blowout in government ought to have kept them on the fringes for a decade. But feckless foes and base emotion was enough to win over the second-most populous metro on earth. The result is scary evidence that Indians make important decisions without thinking.
2. It glamourises poverty. The result suggests that Delhi is merely an extension of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. The filth [on the streets] and regress [in attitude] of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh is all over outer and east Delhi, and parts of the north and south. Kejriwal worked them with promises of freebies without ever recognising that the aam aadmi is also responsible for many problems, especially greed and incompetence.
3. It sustains vote banks. Kejriwal wooed traders saying banias are the backbone of the economy. He never once spoke of how Chandni Chowk barely pays sales or income tax. Kejriwal also pandered to the auto drivers without once recognising that the inhuman bus gangrape happened after an auto driver refused to ferry the young couple. The AAP then topped it with free water propaganda. It was old politics but it won.
4. It worsens new politics. No one seems to remember that the AAP imploded in less than two months in power. The worst minds of the party, who led an arrogant AAP exit from Delhi, are all back in control. Kumar Vishwas is as embarrassing as he was and Sanjay Singh, Gopal Rai and Manish Sisodia are all more powerful. The Kejriwal win affects the AAP more than anyone else.
5. It punishes the worthy. Kiran Bedi and Ajay Maken are fine individuals who have been decimated for no fault of theirs. They are better than most AAP seniors in personal and professional life. But the voters didn’t bother. If anything, Bedi and Maken are less snaky than any of the 70 MLAs who won. Quality is never big in local Delhi politics and this verdict underlines that.
6. It offers poor precedence. The AAP victory lays down a manual on how to win an election. Screw up, hide the blunders, reach deathbed, create an illusion, build an army of outside followers, and wait for opponents to be hated more than you are. Stir and repeat. Not a word on how to fix Delhi. Not a word on being the best in the world.